4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 44

Cleveland Browns 6 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(12:55) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 34 yards to MIN 10, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.52 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 44, worth -2.12 EP
KICK -0.85 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 12, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model