Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 17 at the 66

Miami Dolphins 0 – Baltimore Ravens 7

(1:15) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 38 yards to BAL 28, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 21-L.Webb.

The Three Options

GO -2.24 EP

23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.60 EP
77% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 66, worth -3.69 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model