4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 63

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(5:33) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 47 yards to MIA 16, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.07 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 63, worth -3.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 21, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP