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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 9 at the 39

Miami Dolphins 0 – Baltimore Ravens 40

What Actually Happened

(1:56) (Shotgun) 8-M.Moore pass incomplete short right to 32-K.Drake.

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
What Happened
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +2.91 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 39, worth -1.46 EP
KICK +0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 48, worth -1.86 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.36 EP