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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 63

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(10:16) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 55 yards to MIA 8, Center-46-M.Cox. 19-J.Grant to MIA 9 for 1 yard (88-V.Mayle).

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.56 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 63, worth -3.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 21, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model