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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 28

Baltimore Ravens 20 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(7:43) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 46 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-V.Taylor), Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +1.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.52 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 28, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.20 EP
What Happened
  • 78% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 38, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP