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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 86

Miami Dolphins 0 – Baltimore Ravens 20

What Actually Happened

(10:49) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 49 yards to BAL 37, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 21-L.Webb.

The Three Options

GO -2.69 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.56 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 86, worth -5.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 44, worth -2.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model