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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 9 at the 52

Baltimore Ravens 20 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(12:23) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 43 yards to MIA 9, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-58-S.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.20 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 52, worth -2.86 EP
KICK -1.79 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 15, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model