Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 70

Miami Dolphins 0 – Baltimore Ravens 20

(1:12) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 41 yards to BAL 29, Center-92-J.Denney. 21-L.Webb to BAL 29 for no gain.

The Three Options

GO -1.62 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.28 EP
59% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 70, worth -3.66 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model