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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 11 at the 32

Miami Dolphins 0 – Baltimore Ravens 13

What Actually Happened

(5:05) (Field Goal formation) 1-C.Parkey 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.31 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 32, worth -1.49 EP
KICK +0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 42, worth -2.15 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model