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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 30

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(8:07) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +0.77 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.46 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30, worth -1.44 EP
KICK +0.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 40, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model