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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 9 at the 37

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(13:21) 9-J.Tucker 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +0.00 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.33 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 37, worth -1.81 EP
KICK +0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 46, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model