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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 76

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(12:51) 8-D.Kaser punts 56 yards to NE 20, Center-47-M.Windt. 80-D.Amendola ran ob at NE 36 for 16 yards. PENALTY on NE-31-J.Jones, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NE 22.

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.79 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 76, worth -4.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.90 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 34, worth -1.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP