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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 8

New England Patriots 18 – Los Angeles Chargers 13

What Actually Happened

(1:12) 3-S.Gostkowski 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +1.37 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +3.37 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 8, worth -0.16 EP
KICK +2.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.36 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.50 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model