Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 8 at the 74

Los Angeles Chargers 13 – New England Patriots 18

(4:52) 8-D.Kaser punts 52 yards to NE 22, Center-47-M.Windt. 80-D.Amendola to NE 34 for 12 yards (48-N.Dzubnar).

The Three Options

GO -1.95 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.35 EP
60% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 74, worth -4.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model