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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 52

New England Patriots 18 – Los Angeles Chargers 13

What Actually Happened

(7:10) 6-R.Allen punts 34 yards to LAC 18, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 12-T.Benjamin. Penalty on LAC-20-D.King, Offensive Holding, declined. PENALTY on LAC-25-R.Jenkins, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 9 yards, enforced at LAC 18.

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.60 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 52, worth -2.57 EP
KICK -1.64 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT -0.74 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP