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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 33

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(8:57) 9-N.Novak 51 yard field goal is BLOCKED (93-L.Guy), Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser.

The Three Options

GO +1.97 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.72 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 33, worth -1.91 EP
KICK +0.29 EP
What Happened
  • 68% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 43, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.68 EP