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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 25

New England Patriots 15 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(14:32) 3-S.Gostkowski 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +0.95 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.11 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25, worth -0.92 EP
KICK +1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model