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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 56

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – New England Patriots 12

What Actually Happened

(2:07) 8-D.Kaser punts 47 yards to NE 9, Center-47-M.Windt. 80-D.Amendola ran ob at NE 9 for no gain.

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.26 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 56, worth -3.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 17, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.22 EP