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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 6

New England Patriots 9 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(4:10) 3-S.Gostkowski 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +3.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.90 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 6, worth +0.10 EP
KICK +2.28 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.41 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP