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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 11 at the 11

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(5:45) 4-R.Bullock 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +1.91 EP
  • 26% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.41 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 11, worth +0.33 EP
KICK +2.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 22, worth -0.38 EP
PUNT +0.33 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model