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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 4 at the 48

Indianapolis Colts 23 – Cincinnati Bengals 24

What Actually Happened

(1:22) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short right to 13-T.Hilton [94-C.Smith].

The Three Options

GO +0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.07 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 48, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +0.35 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.70 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -0.57 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model