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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 14 at the 65

Cincinnati Bengals 24 – Indianapolis Colts 23

What Actually Happened

(2:56) 10-K.Huber punts 41 yards to IND 24, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-80-J.Malone.

The Three Options

GO -1.70 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +1.44 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 65, worth -2.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 23, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model