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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 47

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(9:48) 2-R.Sanchez punt is BLOCKED by 75-J.Willis, Center-46-L.Rhodes, ball out of bounds at IND 49.

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.19 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 47, worth -2.96 EP
KICK -1.64 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -3.09 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 13, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model