4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 53

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(1:23) 10-K.Huber punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Harris, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.54 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 53, worth -2.57 EP
KICK -1.49 EP
  • 19% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 81% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 15, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP