Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 9 at the 74

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(2:56) 2-R.Sanchez punts 46 yards to CIN 28, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 12-A.Erickson MUFFS catch, and recovers at CIN 28. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 28 for no gain (28-C.Milton).

The Three Options

GO -2.37 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.34 EP
67% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 74, worth -4.19 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model