Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 75

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Indianapolis Colts 3

(11:50) 10-K.Huber punts 43 yards to IND 32, Center-46-C.Harris. 11-Q.Bray ran ob at CIN 48 for 20 yards (10-K.Huber).

The Three Options

GO -1.93 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.11 EP
66% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 75, worth -4.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model