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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 52

Denver Broncos 13 – Kansas City Chiefs 23

What Actually Happened

(10:09) (Shotgun) 13-T.Siemian pass incomplete short middle to 84-I.McKenzie (56-D.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.48 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 52, worth -2.75 EP
KICK -1.89 EP
  • 18% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 82% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.87 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 15, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model