Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 8 at the 70

Kansas City Chiefs 20 – Denver Broncos 6

(7:09) 2-D.Colquitt punts 53 yards to DEN 17, Center-41-J.Winchester. 84-I.McKenzie to DEN 20 for 3 yards (45-U.Eligwe).

The Three Options

GO -1.64 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.08 EP
62% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 70, worth -3.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model