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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 8 at the 14

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(12:35) 7-H.Butker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.54 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.56 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 14, worth -0.32 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24, worth -0.91 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model