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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 64

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(13:38) 2-D.Colquitt punts 47 yards to DEN 17, Center-41-J.Winchester. 84-I.McKenzie MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by KC-13-D.Thomas at DEN 16. 13-D.Thomas to DEN 16 for no gain (84-I.McKenzie).

The Three Options

GO -0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.34 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 64, worth -3.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 22, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP