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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Dallas Cowboys
4th & 1 at the 52
Dallas Cowboys 7 – Washington Commanders 10
What Actually Happened
(4:02) 21-E.Elliott up the middle to WAS 48 for 4 yards (50-M.Spaight).
The Three Options
GO
+0.85 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.53 EP
- 30% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 52, worth -3.08 EP
KICK
-1.90 EP
- 24% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
- 76% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT
-0.79 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 15, worth -0.79 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
