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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 53

Washington Commanders 13 – Dallas Cowboys 26

What Actually Happened

(6:03) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 25-C.Thompson to DAL 42 for 11 yards (50-S.Lee; 90-D.Lawrence).

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.31 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 53, worth -2.60 EP
KICK -1.43 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 15, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model