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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 19

Dallas Cowboys 23 – Washington Commanders 13

What Actually Happened

(8:47) 2-M.Nugent 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.44 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.00 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 19, worth -0.90 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 29, worth -1.42 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model