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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 71

Washington Commanders 13 – Dallas Cowboys 23

What Actually Happened

(13:45) 5-T.Way punts 45 yards to DAL 26, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 10-R.Switzer to DAL 37 for 11 yards (50-M.Spaight, 57-N.Sundberg).

The Three Options

GO -1.51 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.69 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 71, worth -4.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 29, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model