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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 9

Dallas Cowboys 20 – Washington Commanders 13

What Actually Happened

(:42) 2-M.Nugent 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +2.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.91 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 9, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.86 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP