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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 14 at the 30

Dallas Cowboys 17 – Washington Commanders 13

What Actually Happened

(6:29) 2-M.Nugent 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.84 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30, worth -1.43 EP
KICK +0.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 40, worth -2.11 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model