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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 84

Dallas Cowboys 14 – Washington Commanders 13

What Actually Happened

(:25) 6-C.Jones punts 44 yards to WAS 40, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

The Three Options

GO -1.63 EP
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.20 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 84, worth -4.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -1.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 42, worth -1.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model