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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 58

Washington Commanders 13 – Dallas Cowboys 14

What Actually Happened

(1:10) 5-T.Way punts 49 yards to DAL 9, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-38-J.Holsey.

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.36 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 58, worth -2.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 18, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model