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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 20

Washington Commanders 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(13:17) 6-N.Rose 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +3.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +5.05 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 20, worth -0.37 EP
KICK +2.01 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30, worth -1.07 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP