Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 13 at the 78

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Washington Commanders 13

(8:08) 6-C.Jones punts 51 yards to WAS 27, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.70 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.34 EP
68% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 78, worth -4.59 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model