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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 15 at the 31

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Washington Commanders 10

What Actually Happened

(13:04) 2-M.Nugent 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.61 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 31, worth -1.85 EP
KICK +0.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 41, worth -2.45 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model