Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 18 at the 77

New Orleans Saints 7 – Chicago Bears 0

(5:27) 6-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to CHI 26, Center-49-Z.Wood. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 25 for -1 yards (34-J.Hardee).

The Three Options

GO -2.38 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.35 EP
72% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 77, worth -4.25 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model