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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 31

New Orleans Saints 17 – Chicago Bears 12

What Actually Happened

(1:40) 3-W.Lutz 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +1.38 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 31, worth -1.46 EP
KICK +0.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 41, worth -1.72 EP
PUNT -0.69 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model