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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 61

Chicago Bears 12 – New Orleans Saints 17

What Actually Happened

(1:57) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass incomplete short right to 13-K.Wright (32-K.Vaccaro).

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.38 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 61, worth -2.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.74 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 20, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model