Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 71

Chicago Bears 6 – New Orleans Saints 17

(12:02) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 61 yards to NO 10, Center-49-A.DePaola. 19-T.Ginn to NO 24 for 14 yards (36-D.Houston-Carson).

The Three Options

GO -1.98 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.22 EP
61% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 71, worth -4.05 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model