Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 90

Chicago Bears 6 – New Orleans Saints 14

(:31) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 51 yards to NO 39, Center-49-A.DePaola. 19-T.Ginn to NO 47 for 8 yards (38-A.Amos).

The Three Options

GO -3.37 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.57 EP
66% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 90, worth -5.36 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model