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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 46

New Orleans Saints 14 – Chicago Bears 6

What Actually Happened

(2:23) 6-T.Morstead punts 36 yards to CHI 10, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.14 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 46, worth -2.53 EP
KICK -0.76 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 13, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model