4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 25

Chicago Bears 3 – New Orleans Saints 14

What Actually Happened

(5:47) 4-C.Barth 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-A.DePaola, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +0.48 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.96 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25, worth -1.13 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 35, worth -1.95 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model