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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 59

New Orleans Saints 14 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(9:25) 6-T.Morstead punts 56 yards to CHI 3, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-34-J.Hardee.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.39 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 59, worth -3.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 18, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model